How Trump Can Triumph in Debate No. 2
Donald Trump is going to have to keep his calm and be strategic in his jabs at Hillary Clinton to prevail as the winner in the second presidential debate Sunday. (ROBYN BECK/AFP/GETTY IMAGES)
Trailing Clinton by 3 to 6 points nationally and lagging in key battleground states with less than a month before Election Day, the Republican nominee has little room for error and is under pressure to deliver a crisp, cogent argument for himself while comfortably connecting with uncommitted voters who will be seated inside the room.
That goal became even more arduous late Friday, when The Washington Post posted a video capturing Trump having a lewd conversation 11 years ago en route to tape an "Access Hollywood" segment about Trump's cameo in a soap opera. In the video, Trump can be heard speaking graphically about attempting to move in on a married woman, and stating that “you can do anything” to beautiful women “when you’re a star.”
“I did try and f--- her. She was married,” Trump says.
“You know I’m automatically attracted to beautiful – I just start kissing them. It’s like a magnet. Just kiss. I don’t even wait. And when you’re a star they let you do it,” Trump says.
“Grab them by the p---y,” he says. “You can do anything.”
Trump attempted to downplay the remarks as “locker room banter,” but the predatory and vividly repellent nature of the conversation may have an irreversible impact on his already flailing candidacy. The GOP nominee now will enter the debate in an embarrassing posture, forced to explain away comments that are inexplicable for anyone in public life, let alone a major party presidential nominee.
Trump may have had a plan of attack in mind for the second 90-minute debate at Washington University in St. Louis, which will feature questions from surrounding audience members as well as moderators Anderson Cooper of CNN and Martha Raddatz of ABC News, who will consider queries submitted from the public online.
But now his personal conduct and treatment of women are certain to be predominant topics. The candidate must find some way to show regret and remorse, without becoming defensive, if he hopes to salvage his candidacy.
Prior to this political earthquake, his execution during a town hall in Sandown, New Hampshire, on Thursday night might offer clues to a more refined and focused debate approach. After flirting with the notion of going after former President Bill Clinton’s infidelities, Trump appeared to dismiss the idea to a questioner, saying, “It is about issues, it is about policy.”
But in this format, it's also about people – and how a candidate can show sympathy, empathy and warm assurance when confronted with the country's most vexing problems. This is not something Trump has appeared comfortable doing on the trail, preferring the massive rally to the intimate gathering and the searing rhetorical strike to the softer stroke of optimism.
Nonetheless, Trump's campaign is well-aware they need their candidate to perform at a high level Sunday night, and Trump himself appears to be grudgingly taking preparations at least marginally more seriously. He has no scheduled public events Friday or Saturday, a rarity for an individual who feeds off adoring crowds and persistent media attention.
As he readies to take the stage Sunday night, here's a U.S. News guide to how Trump can succeed in this second go-round in order to make his campaign great again. If he accomplishes even a draw with Clinton, it'll be perceived among the media as a victory, and will hand him the opportunity for another revival.
Turn the Tax Issue Into an Advantage
Given the ripple effect of The New York Times' revelation regarding Trump's 1995 tax records, the businessman should be prepared to put the topic to bed, or at least to stifle it as much as possible.
Barring a surprise late decision to release his tax returns – something he has repeatedly refused to do despite a decadeslong precedent of presidential candidates making their records public – it's imperative that Trump try to turn the narrative that he may have gamed the system into a positive.
In the first debate, prior to the Times' reporting that he took a $916 million loss that could have allowed him to avoid paying federal income taxes for up to 18 years, Trump boasted that skirting such tax laws "makes me smart."
"I take advantage of the laws of the nation," he declared.
What was missing was a precise and emphatic articulation of how tax loopholes are a symptom of the entire "rigged system" he's trying to change for the good of the people.
"He ought to tie it to one of his original campaign themes: 'The system is rotten, controlled by lobbyists and big donors, and if you don't like the tax code, blame them,'" says Tucker Carlson, the conservative commentator, editor-in-chief of The Daily Caller and former sparring partner on CNN's now-defunct "Crossfire." "And by the way, of the people who wrote the tax code, how many are supporting Trump? Just about zero. They're all for Hillary. Because she's corrupt. That's what I'd say."
Democrats aren't going to lay off Trump's tax returns no matter what he says. But given that a Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 67 percent of Americans say it's "selfish" for a presidential candidate to pay no taxes, Trump should attempt to redirect the conversation by shining a light on the loopholes benefiting the wealthy and touting his knowledge as an advantage in reforming the complicated system.
Show Some Heart, Hug a Voter
Feeling your pain has not been a strong suit of Trump's.
A hypermasculine alpha male, he is happiest and most effective as a primal aggressor, hurling slashing attacks and doling out debasing put-downs.
Sunday evening, he would be smart to leave those impulses back at Trump Tower. The 2005 caught-on-tape comments also underline the need to show penance and some demonstration that he’s learned from a sordid past.
Inevitably, there will be a moment when a questioner, likely a woman, rises to ask a pointed, poignant and perhaps uncomfortable question. It could be from the parent of a victim of police violence or a fallen soldier; it could be from someone who's lost a job.
"If someone asks him a question and is clearly suffering, he should walk over there and hug them, to show his personal side," says Frank Luntz, the political consultant revered for his popular focus groups.
And if a woman asks him how he could serve as a role model for America’s daughters, it could prove to be the seminal moment of his candidacy.
Luntz says this debate is less about issues and more about featuring "who you are as a person, how you think on your feet, how you relate, how you empathize."
It's a side Trump hasn't shown, which is why it would be so dramatic and potentially appealing.
"He should be asking them questions. You say something like, 'I know you want to know more from me, but I want to use this opportunity to hear from you,'" Luntz says.
This is not an inherent Trump strength, and if he responds to a voter with dismissiveness or displeasure, it will be costly.
"If he gets agitated, then he's going to lose," Luntz warns.
Carefully and Gingerly, Make It About Her
This may be the hardest task of all given the unique atmospherics of the town hall format, in which physical gestures and facial expressions are amplified without the protective lecterns separating the candidates onstage.
But fighting from behind, Trump still needs to make this election about Clinton, casting her as the worse option even while wearing all his warts. He just has to do it carefully and gingerly, choosing the right moments, building a surgical case and not going overboard.
In the first debate, he let Clinton off the hook too easily on her use of a private email server and address, a decision she now admits was a mistake and has hamstrung her campaign throughout the year.
He spent just 24 total seconds on the topic in the first debate, and simply dubbing the episode's intricacies "disgraceful" is not enough. He needs to demonstrate how the controversy undercuts her trust with the public and delineate the case that it disqualifies her from serving. And he doesn't need a question about it to do so.
Any time the issue of character, trust, judgment or integrity is raised is a prime opportunity for Trump to wield this argument. It's even better if he's talking directly to a voter about it, rather than snarling straight at Clinton.
Trump also could broaden the argument against Clinton in an effort to undercut the claim that she's the most qualified candidate in history.
Drew Nettles, a conservative political consultant with ties to the energy industry, says Trump should go back decades to pick apart Clinton's entire rationale for her candidacy. In short, turn her long track record in public life into a picture of rank incompetence.
"Note how she burst onto the national scene running her husband's administration into the ground with the overreach on Hillarycare, producing the first Republican House majority for a generation," Nettles says. "Note how she struggled against the glass ceiling, window-shopping from the White House before cherry-picking a safe seat for a state in which she had never lived. After undistinguished service in the Senate, she goes on to blow her post position as the default nominee to a guy fresh out of the state legislature whose claim to fame was one good speech and two autobiographies before actually achieving anything."
He continues, "She takes her vaunted skill set … and runs our foreign policy into the ground. Now she wants to be president and run our economy, which she would do with the same dangerous lack of basic competence she's displayed to date in every position she's demanded as her right rather than earned."
This torrid indictment would require a retention of history and chronology that, again, Trump has not demonstrated. But done temperately and delicately, it's a case that would reverberate powerfully through the media echo chamber and force Clinton to defend a roughly three-decade career in political power.
It also would reinforce Trump's own unique position as an outsider who has never wholeheartedly run for anything until now.
No comments